The economic evidence is reassuring. Nashville's own study, and the broader academic record, find that conservation overlays protect property value — and, in most cases, help it grow.
Findings drawn primarily from The New Nashville, the 2019 study commissioned by the Metropolitan Historical Commission and conducted by PlaceEconomics, an independent research firm. Methodology: 12 years of property-tax data across 42,000+ single-family homes.
From 2005–2017, homes in Nashville's conservation overlays appreciated at 8.0% per year; historic preservation overlays at 8.8%. The rest of the city: 6.0%.
Not a single Nashville historic district lost value over the 12-year study period. Most outperformed; none went backward.
From the start of the Great Recession through 2018, historic districts experienced less than half the foreclosure rate of the rest of Nashville — 25.3 vs. 54.1 per 1,000 homes.
A 2007 review of 15 separate U.S. studies found property values inside designated districts consistently exceeded those in comparable undesignated neighborhoods — with the strongest effect coming from local designation, the category Green Hills East is pursuing.
A landmark Connecticut study compared virtually identical homes inside and outside historic districts. Designation alone produced a measurable premium, and every town studied had a lower foreclosure rate inside the district than outside it.
A 2003 study by the New York City Independent Budget Office — conducted by the city's own budget office, not by preservationists — found that homes in historic districts sold at a consistent premium over comparable non-district homes for every year studied, and that overall price appreciation from 1975 to 2002 was greater inside districts than outside.
The most recent academic work — a 2021 Denver study using newer statistical methods — found a 12–23% price premium for homes inside locally designated districts. The effect has only become clearer with time.
What about selling to a developer?
Some homeowners reasonably ask whether an overlay limits their ability to sell to a developer at a premium price. It is a fair question, and one worth answering plainly.
The honest answer is yes — a conservation overlay does limit the demolition of contributing homes, which can affect what a developer is willing to pay for a pure teardown play. That tradeoff is real and should be acknowledged.
But the broader effect on a typical homeowner's value runs the other way, and it is asymmetric. Without an overlay, the bigger risk is that your neighbor sells first. If a developer replaces a contributing home next door with a 5,000-square-foot structure that overlooks your backyard or breaks the rhythm of the block, your home's value can fall before you ever get the chance to sell.
An overlay applies the same protection to every home in the neighborhood, regardless of which one comes to market first.
Sources
The New Nashville: A Study of the Impacts of Historic Preservation — PlaceEconomics for Metro Historical Commission, 2019.
placeeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Nashville-Report-6.19.19-spreads-smaller2-compressed.pdf
Economic Impact Study on Historic Preservation in Nashville — Metro Historical Commission overview.
nashville.gov/departments/historic-preservation/additional-resources/economic-impact-study
Historic Districting and Property Values — Metro Planning summary, 2025.
nashville.gov/sites/default/files/2025-11/Historic-Districting-and-Property-Values.pdf
Shaping Nashville's Progress: Tools, Strategies and Incentives — PlaceEconomics, 2020.
placeeconomics.com/resources/the-new-nashville-a-study-of-the-impacts-of-historic-preservation/
The Impact of Historic Districts on Residential Property Values — NYC Independent Budget Office, 2003.
ibo.nyc.ny.us/iboreports/historic.pdf
Historic Preservation and Residential Property Values: Texas Cities — Leichenko, Coulson & Listokin, Urban Studies, 2001.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1080/00420980120080880
The Internal and External Impact of Historical Designation on Property Values — Coulson & Leichenko, JREFE, 2001 (Connecticut head-to-head study).
link.springer.com/article/10.1023/A:1011120908836
Historic Designation and Property Values in Memphis — Coulson & Lahr, Real Estate Economics, 2005.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1540-6229.2005.00126.x
The Political Economy of Historic Districts (Denver Study) — Zhou, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2021.
sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0166046220302684
Benefits of Residential Historic District Designation for Property Owners — Mabry, 2007 (meta-review of 15 studies).
historicspokane.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Historic-District-benefits_Mabry_-6-7-07.pdf